Historical estimate
An IATA-defined accident on a commercial flight in 2025
- Probability:
- 1.32 × 10⁻⁴%
- Odds:
- 1 to 758,000
- dBan
- −58.8 dBan
The 2025 report recorded 51 IATA-defined accidents across 38.7 million flights, or about one for every 758,000 flights at the published rounded rate.
Calculation
p ≈ 1.32 / 1,000,000
Assumptions
The model samples one flight from the covered commercial passenger and cargo jet and turboprop operations. Accidents include tail strikes, landing-gear damage, and runway excursions, as well as more severe events. This is a per-flight historical estimate, not passenger fatality risk or a forecast.
Sources
- IATA: 2025 Safety Report 51 accidents across 38.7 million flights, with a published rate of 1.32 per million