Historical estimate
A commercial flight without an IATA-defined accident in 2025
- Probability:
- (100 − 1.32 × 10⁻⁴)%
- Odds:
- 758,000 to 1
- dBan
- +58.8 dBan
The 2025 report recorded 51 IATA-defined accidents across 38.7 million flights. Using its rounded rate, about 758,000 flights had no such accident for every flight that did.
Calculation
p ≈ 1 − 1.32 / 1,000,000
Assumptions
The model samples one flight from the covered commercial passenger and cargo jet and turboprop operations. Accidents include events such as tail strikes, landing-gear damage, and runway excursions, as well as more severe events. This is a per-flight historical estimate, not passenger fatality risk or a forecast.
Sources
- IATA: 2025 Safety Report 51 accidents across 38.7 million flights, with a published rate of 1.32 per million