Estimate

One DNA nucleotide is copied correctly

Probability:
(100 − 1 × 10⁻⁷)%
Odds:
(1 × 10⁹) to 1
dBan
+90 dBan

A standard molecular-biology estimate gives about one mistake after proofreading and mismatch repair per billion nucleotides copied. That leaves about 999,999,999 copied correctly.

Calculation

p ≈ 1 − 10⁻⁹

Assumptions

This is a textbook order-of-magnitude estimate after proofreading and mismatch repair. Fidelity varies across organisms, cells, conditions, and repair systems. The event concerns one nucleotide, not an entire genome.

Sources

  1. Molecular Biology of the Cell: DNA Replication Mechanisms proofreading and mismatch repair yield about one mistake per 10⁹ nucleotides copied