Defined model

A reported injury collision over a 20 km car trip

Probability:
6.01 × 10⁻⁴%
Odds:
1 to 166,000
dBan
−52.2 dBan

For a modelled 20 km car trip at Great Britain’s 2025 national rate, police-reported injury-collision involvement occurs about once in 166,000 trips.

Calculation

λ = 484 / (1,000,000,000 × 1.609344) per km; p = 1 − e^(−λ × 20) ≈ 6.0149 × 10⁻⁶

Assumptions

This defined model applies a constant-distance Poisson rate to one 20 km car trip. The national aggregate excludes property-only and unreported collisions. It describes vehicle involvement, not the chance that an occupant is injured or killed. The chosen distance is illustrative. Road, traffic, driver, and weather conditions vary.

Sources

  1. UK Department for Transport: vehicles involved in reported road collisions, 2025 Table 2: 484 car involvements per billion vehicle miles, published 30 July 2026