Defined model

A preselected Bitcoin hash appears within one day

Probability:
7.46 × 10⁻⁵⁰%
Odds:
1 to (1.34 × 10⁵¹)
dBan
−511.3 dBan

At the modelled network rate, the probability of producing a specific 256-bit hash chosen in advance at least once during one day is about 1 in 1.34 × 10⁵¹.

Calculation

p = 1 − (1 − 2⁻²⁵⁶)ᴺ ≈ N / 2²⁵⁶ ≈ 1 in 1.34 × 10⁵¹, where N ≈ 8.64 × 10²⁵

Assumptions

The network makes N independent, uniform hash attempts at a rounded rate of 10²¹ per second for 86,400 seconds. Ordinary mining accepts any hash below a target threshold. Matching one preselected hash is a much narrower event.

Sources

  1. Kryptex network hash rate updated 24 October 2026
  2. Bitcoin Developer Guide: proof of work